The title of this address is Northern Ireland - Present Position, Future Prospects and Possibilities. The timing of this lecture enables me to speak to you about the Twin Track Strategy which was launched by the Prime Minister and the Taoiseach last Tuesday night, and also to review President Clinton's historic visit to Northern Ireland last Thursday. I want to begin by outlining where we are now and say a little about how we arrived here as well as correcting some misapprehensions, before going on to look to the future.
We have been taken to task for foot-dragging over the peace process, of not wanting peace but seeking the surrender of Sinn Fein and not responding positively to the ceasefires. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The present initiative represents the latest stage in a long process which began when direct rule was initiated in 1972. As many of you here tonight will know, over the past 25 years many previous attempts to find a solution have foundered. Based on past experience, I believe that it is now generally accepted that a settlement cannot be imposed - it can only be achieved on the basis of broad acceptance, by the people of Northern Ireland, following discussion and agreement between their political representatives. The British Government has committed itself to facilitate this process.
As you will all know, the current initiative began with round-table talks in 1991 and 1992 between the four main Northern Ireland parties and the British and Irish Governments. This was an important step forward. It was agreed by all the participants that any settlement would need to address the three key sets of relationships: those within Northern Ireland; within the island of Ireland; and between the two Governments. Although it was not possible to reach overall agreement, most of the key issues were discussed. Dialogue with the parties and the Irish Government has been continuing bilaterally since then.
Equally significant was the Joint Declaration which involved the Irish Government and the British Governments joining to say that the constitutional future of Northern Ireland should be determined by the people living there. Thus the continual use of violence implies that you recognise that you are unable to achieve your goals through democratic negotiation and persuasion.
The purpose of the dialogue was to explore the basis upon which Sinn Fein would come to be admitted to inclusive talks; to exchange views on how these parties would come to play a full part in the normal political life of Northern Ireland and to explore the practical consequences of the end of violence. These meetings began at official level, under Ministerial authority and direction. I subsequently joined discussions with the loyalist parties in March 1995 and with Sinn Fein in May. Although meetings with the loyalist continue, it is regrettable that Sinn Fein withdrew from these discussions following our last meeting on 3 November.
Other political responses to the ceasefire include the normalisation of Government contacts with Sinn Fein, from January, the meeting between the Secretary of State and Mr Adams in the margins of the US investment conference in May, and the withdrawal of restrictions on funding community groups in July. And we have also responded positively in security terms to the absence of terrorist activities. After the ceasefires the broadcasting ban was lifted and closure orders on all border roads were raised.
Nearly 2,000 troops have been able to leave Northern Ireland, half of the emergency tour battalions. Check points have been removed. The Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) are able to patrol without army support, without flak jackets and on occasion, without weapons. The Chief Constable has also concluded that security structures can be removed, such as the Rosemount Tower in Londonderry. All security measures are kept continually under review.
On 17 November, as a result of co-operation on all sides in the House of Commons and the House of Lords, we were able to implement very quickly legislation to bring remission rates in Northern Ireland for those convicted of terrorist offences, back in line with those for non-terrorist offences. This resulted in the release of over 80 prisoners. Independent reviews of the Emergency Provisions Act and Prevention of Terrorism Act have also been announced.
Life in Northern Ireland has been transformed. Since the ceasefires these steps represent a move towards the return of normality and these have been matched by signs of increased prosperity in Northern Ireland. The Prime Minister's successful International Investment Conference in Belfast last October, followed by the US Investment conference in May provided an opportunity to demonstrate that Northern Ireland is a good place to do business.
Employment in the year to June 1995 rose by 1.9%. At 566,000, the highest June figure on record. Unemployment fall to 11.5% in the year to October, the lowest since August 1981. It has also been a good year for tourism. Figures show an estimated increase of 14% on the same period of 1994. Holiday visitors are up 56%.
Last December we re-allocated $240m from the Law and Order budget to economic and social programmes for 1995/6 - 1997/8. In July, $360m was allocated to a Peace and Reconciliation Programme by the European Commission, for use in Northern Ireland and the border counties.
During his visit President Clinton took the trouble to meet the Northern Ireland party leaders as well as a cross section of the community in Northern Ireland. His genuine interest and concern that the peace should hold was demonstrated in his speech at the Mackie's Metal Plant when he made his call to the people of Northern Ireland. I quote "You must stand firm against terror. You must say to those who still would use violence for political objectives - you are the past; your day is over. Violence has no place at the table of democracy, and no role in the future of this land".
Our objective remains - inclusive all-party Talks, addressing the three interlocking relationships, leading to a comprehensive and widely acceptable settlement. We have been continuing our discussions with the Northern Ireland parties, and, of course, the Irish Government, to find the way ahead. To help create the right conditions for multilateral dialogue to take place.
I welcome the stance New Dialogue has taken over this issue of punishment beatings. I also welcome the joint statement made on 21 November by the four Northern Ireland Church Leaders, and which was supported by President Clinton, condemning this heinous practice.
It is significant however that in the period around the visit by President Clinton the people of Northern Ireland have not been subjected to the usual sickening reports of people being brutally assaulted by gangs of Republicans and Loyalists meting out their own grotesque parody of Justice. This has been very welcome and I call on those with the evident influence to secure such a pause in this violence to ensure now that we do not ever again witness this type of thuggery.
The paramilitary machinery on both sides remains intact. Targeting, training, racketeering, extorting and exclusions continue. There have also been a number of attacks on church property, Orange Halls and premises of the Gaelic Athletic Association. Even kidnappings. These are not the activities of a party committed to exclusively democratic methods.
We have also heard remarks by leading Republicans that the armed struggle remains legitimate. Mr Adams made this claim in his recent book. He then told us at a recent press conference that the argument for physical force republicanism remain intact.
The present situation is that everyone sees the need to talk, including the British Government. That is the only way a comprehensive settlement is going to be reached. Also everyone is agreed that we need to take the gun out of politics in Northern Ireland. But there is disagreement about when this should take place. Sinn Fein argue that the decommissioning of arms should take place as part of an overall settlement. But democratic politicians who have stood out bravely for 25 years against the terrorists, quite understandably refuse to negotiate with those who are backed by a private army, those who make sinister noises about threats to the peace process and who refuse to take a single weapon out of commission. Naturally these fuel the suspicion that the arms will be used if they do not get their way and fail to achieve their objectives at the negotiating table.
The twin track process is intended to provide a means of helping to create such confidence. The aim is to tackle in parallel both the issue of decommissioning and the ground work for substantive talks. Both Governments have a firm aim of achieving the launch of all-party negotiations by the end of February next year, we believe that this is an achievable objective and have committed ourselves to work with the Irish Government, and others to achieve this.
The talks, which will be preparatory and not substantive will have the aim of reaching widespread agreement on the basis, participation, structure, format and agenda for substantive negotiations. As the joint communique made clear, these talks will have an open agenda which will allow any party to raise any relevant matter. The deliberations could include discussion on how best the structure and format of all-party negotiations, can properly take account of democratic mandates and principles, including whether and how an elected body could play a part.
This recognises the suggestion, made by several Northern Ireland parties that an elected body could play an important part in all party negotiations. Other parties disagree. But this idea can be discussed - very appropriately - in these preparatory talks.
Any such discussion would also need to bear in mind that substantive negotiations would involve both Governments, where appropriate, all the relevant Northern Ireland parties and address all the three interlocking sets of relationships.
The Joint Communique also states that preparatory talks might also extend to all steps required to establish the necessary circumstances to bring the parties together at the negotiating table in accordance with paragraph 10 of the Downing Street Declaration - which I mentioned earlier. Not all the parties meet those requirements of paragraph 10 and this will be a valid subject for discussion in the preparatory talks.
The format of these preparatory talks will be flexible. This is intentional. Both we and the Irish Government propose to build on existing exchanges and bilateral contacts. But where the objective of the further preparatory talks might be, we have agreed to encourage other formats, these might be multilateral meetings between our two Governments together and one or more parties, with their agreement.
In parallel to these talks, the two Governments have agreed to establish an International Body to provide an independent assessment of the decommissioning issue. We are very pleased that Senator George Mitchell of the United States has agreed to chair the body, and that John De Chastelain of Canada and Mr Harri Holkeri of Finland have also agreed to serve with him. They will act in a personal capacity and on an advisory basis. The Body is being asked to:-
It will be for the international body, in reaching conclusions within its remit, to consider such evidence on its merits.
No one is bound in advance to accept the Body's recommendations. The Body has been asked to submit its report to the two Governments by the end of January and both we and the Irish Government have undertaken to consider carefully any recommendations the Body makes and to give them due weight on their merits. As the Prime Minister made clear, we will not be asking the International Body to question the Government's position on what has become known as the third Washington criteria. The question of when decommissioning should start is a matter of judgement for the Government and, can be properly discussed in the preparatory talks.
As we have said before, this is a practical issue on the creation of confidence - not a matter of dogma. We cannot see a way of securing the necessary confidence to bring all the parties to the negotiating table without a start being made to the decommissioning of illegal arms.
We hope that we will also see, in parallel, discussions taking place between the Northern Ireland parties and the two Governments to prepare the groundwork for all party talks. Some of the parties have put forward their own ideas on how matters might be taken forward and as I have said, it is open to all participants to express their views on the way substantive political negotiations should be conducted and to raise any relevant matter. There are several issues on which there will need to be agreement. Who shall participate? What should be on the agenda? What sort of structures and formats should be adopted?
We hope that the parties will accept invitations to attend these discussions. It provides all with an opportunity to set out their views and to explore them with others. We do not expect these Preparatory talks will be easy but we hope that they will help the Participants to gain confidence in the process as a whole.
Looking a bit further ahead, I hope that we will see the beginning of inclusive all-party negotiations addressing a comprehensive agenda by the end of February, which is the target date both Governments are aiming to achieve. As the Prime Minister said in the House of Commons last Wednesday, the two Governments can work to facilitate discussion and agreement, but we cannot achieve it alone. This will require the Northern Ireland parties.
As President Clinton said when he spoke at the Mackie's Metal Plant, "I hope the parties will seize the opportunity. Engaging in honest dialogue is not an act of surrender, it is an act of strength and common sense". All engaged in the process will need courage and commitment and a sense of vision for future - of a politically stable and prosperous Northern Ireland.
It is not possible to say how long these substantive talks are likely to take. But with good will on all sides the Government believes that there is an opportunity to reach broadspread agreement on an enduring settlement in Northern Ireland. The Prime Minister has given an undertaking that the result of this process will be put to the electorate in Northern Ireland for approval in a referendum. Any legislation needed to implement an agreement will, of course, need to be approved by Parliament.
There is a great opportunity for the people of Northern Ireland and the two Governments to demonstrate to ourselves and to the world that democracy can triumph over terrorism. This Government is determined to continue to work to facilitate agreement to achieve this goal.
For by doing so, we can give to the people of Northern Ireland and in particular to the children of Northern Ireland whose tomorrow we address today that which we take for granted and which they should too. The glittering prize of a lasting and democratic peace.